AL - SHABAAB TARGET NAIROBI AGAIN

How Al-Shabaab Plans to Bomb Nairobi, The Bomb Strategy

An Improvised Explosive Device detonated at Assanads building in the busy Moi Avenue of Nairobi was identified as petrol-fertilizer bomb’, created by Al-Shabaab. After deploying such ruthless terror besides interviewing victims and survivors of the blast, Al-Shabaab has made a new terror threat on Nairobi, promising to bring down Kenya’s towering sky-crappers.
In their message, Al-s-Shabaab said, “something big is coming, within the next two weeks and Kenyans shall watch their towers coming down; Two weeks from now you will weep.” So far, the bombs and grenades deployed by Al-Shabaab have failed to cause significant destruction and deaths to manifest the kind of terror Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab hopes to inflict on Kenya.
However, the new ‘petrol-fertilizer’ bomb and its success in destroying the build and causing mayhem in the capital is indicative of the presence of an expert bomb maker operating in Nairobi, hence reinventing Al-Shabaab’s hope of inflicting a deadly blow to Kenya.
The warning issued by Al-Shabaab on 31st May reveals the bomb makers instructions, that he should continue to develop a more effective explosive device since his success in the previous one defines his proficiency further increases his chances of success.
Analysis
In 1998 embassy bombings, the bombing was a revenge for American for extradition and torture of four members of Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ). The looming Al-Shabaab attack is a revenge against Kenya’s military incursion in Somalia, which so far has renewed hope of rebuilding Somalia. Al-Qaeda used suicide bombers in trucks loaded with explosives parked outside the embassies.
Al-Shabaab has very effective communication and coordination capabilities. In Thursday 31^st May 2012, Al-Shabaab coordinated two relatively effective military attacks on AMISOM troops in Afgoye and Mogadishu. Al-Qaeda coordinated the 1998 Nairobi and Dar-le-salaam bombings simultaneously. September 11 2001 US bombing were simultaneous and very well coordinated.
The simultaneous and coordination aspect of terror is primary in their evolving strategy. We also identify the type of strategy and bomb used in each of the three incidents to identify correlation and possible re-use or redefining of either strategy in the looming attack.
The Nairobi 1998 bomb was made of 500 cylinders of TNT, aluminum nitrate, aluminum powder, and detonating cord. The Dar bomb was made of TNT attached to fifteen oxygen tanks and gas canisters, and was surrounded with four bags of ammonium nitrate fertilizer.
The mode of deployment was trucks, cars, and a suicide unit to complete the deployment and detonation. The Nairobi bomb was effectively deployed and the results were deadly. But it is the Dar-Le-Salaam bomb structure that resembles the May 2012 bomb deployed in Moi Avenue in Nairobi.

Resources, Strategy, Scenarios, and Expertise
In Mogadishu, suicide bombers proving lethal and effective strategies to rain terror on Somali people have deployed car bombs. The suicide policy is a difficult one but the yields of its success are what make it an effective strategy. Since 1998, there has never been a successful suicide terror mission in Nairobi even in the recent past. Mogadishu-Kismayo proximity to Nairobi provides the right infrastructure leeway for a low profile suicide mission and this begs the question, could the Al-Shabaab terror threat be a car-suicide bomber strategy?
While we acknowledge the presence of the expert bomb maker, in Nairobi, it’s the availability of a suicide bomber that is nascent. He may be available indeed and already doing the last touches on the mission. The militant’s media friends broadcast previous Al-Shabaab attack threats before the actual time of attack. This further adds to the list of possibilities, that the resources to launch the attack are in place.
As such, Al-Shabaab’s threat to bring down a sky crapper in Nairobi is surreal. The resources to mobilize such an attack are available, and the bomb and the bomber have already been identified, besides, the operation is already on schedule (2-weeks). As such within this period, the target will be locked and destroyed.
Perspective and Strategic Intelligence Counter Intelligence Measures/Advisory
The perspective of terror intends to inflict psychological fear that outweighs the physical devastation.Al-Shabaab got a maximum gain after the May 2012 bombing of a building in a Nairobi after mobs milled the scene. Strategic Intelligence went through previous terror planning process to predict the event and the plans mentioned above.
A suicide bomber is likely to be used in the terror attack. The initial planning of the attack took place early in May and the smaller version of the bomb deployed on May 28^th 2012 to test the effectiveness of the weapon. As such, the terrorists will use an ammonium nitrate fertilizer bomb which might have a touch of TNT to improve magnitude of the effect.
The terrorists will target a famous sky-crapper. We have identified only a number of -sky-crappers in the Capital Nairobi (Times Tower [New Central Bank Complex], Kenyatta International Conference Centre (KICC), Social Security House, View Park Towers, Nyayo House, M Building/Tower&Lornho House, I).
We narrow target probability depending on security accorded to each. Times tower, Nyayo House, and KICC are well-guarded making them difficult targets based on security provided both on basement parking and on the entry points. The prime targets are Social Security House, View Park Towers, I&M Building, and Lornho House. The prime targets between these four are I&M Building and View Park Towers.
View Park is located next to the Central Park where Nairobi people and tourists in the capital take daytime rest and enjoy picnics. The parking lot is dark and at times congested. This makes this sky crapper a prime target. If a powerful bomb detonates and brings down the building, those inside and nearby would be buried under the rubble (demystifying the threat that ‘Two weeks from now you will weep”).
I&M Building is a prime target for its location at the heart of the Nairobi central business district. It houses a Safaricom outlet besides other important firms including I&M Bank itself.
The terrorists will adopt suicide bombers, TNT-Ammonium nitrate bombs or Aluminum-Nitrate-bombs with petrol to eradicate ammonia detection deployed on a salon vehicle to deter detection, or a vehicle will be parked inside a basement with a either a self detonating bomb or a remote controlled bomb.
This is an early warning analysis. We ask relevant security and intelligence service to deploy effective measures to ensure this threat is preempted successfully to save both lives and the integrity of the Republic of Kenya.